17.11.2025
Economic activity in Moldova is projected to recover, driven by domestic demand and supported by spending under the Reform and Growth Facility. After stagnation in 2024, real GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.6% in 2025 and strengthen to 2.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, as agriculture rebounds and investment accelerates. Inflation is expected to ease after the winter 2024/25 energy price hike, returning to the central bank’s target range, but to rise modestly again as domestic demand strengthens. The general government deficit is projected to remain broadly stable in 2025 and then widen to close to 5% of GDP by 2027, while the gross public debt ratio is expected to rise to about 41% of GDP.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 7.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Unemployment (%) | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| General government balance (% of GDP) | -3.8 | -4.6 | -4.9 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 38.9 | 40.0 | 41.1 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -19.2 | -20.4 | -19.9 |
Economic activity set to recover, driven by domestic demand
Following stagnation in 2024, real GDP rebounded in the second quarter of 2025, supported by robust domestic demand, real wage growth and broad-based energy support that cushioned the impact of higher winter energy prices on households and firms. Private investment grew strongly, supported by policy incentives (including a zero-tax rate for reinvested profits by SMEs) and more favourable financing conditions, while net exports continued to weigh on growth due to weaker agricultural exports and higher electricity imports. Growth is projected to reach 1.6% in 2025 and to strengthen over 2026-27 as agriculture recovers and the Reform and Growth Facility boosts consumption and investment. Net exports are expected to remain a drag, though their negative contribution is projected to ease as agricultural exports rebound and import growth moderates.
Labour market rebounds alongside economic recovery
Labour shortages stemming from skills mismatches and widespread work abroad are expected to continue constraining the labour market. After employment and participation declined during the slowdown, the labour market is projected to resume moderate growth as the recovery gains pace. Real wage growth slowed in early 2025 due to higher inflation but is expected to strengthen again, supported by strong labour demand and legislated increases in public and minimum wages, sustaining private consumption.
Inflation eases after energy price hike in winter 2024/25
Inflation peaked in early 2025 following a sharp electricity price increase and then eased as energy and food prices declined and domestic agricultural production improved. Inflation is expected to fall below 6% by the end of 2025, returning to the central bank’s target range of 5% ±1.5 pps. Over 2026-27, inflationary pressures are projected to rise modestly again, reflecting stronger domestic demand.
Fiscal deficit remained broadly stable but is set to increase
Revenues outperformed expectations in 2025, supported by higher inflation and improved collection, while expenditure was underexecuted, especially for capital spending. The general government deficit is expected to reach 3.8% of GDP in 2025, similar to 2024. Over the forecast horizon, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is projected to widen to close to 5% by 2027, mainly due to higher current spending linked to reforms and increased investment financed under the Reform and Growth Facility. Public debt is projected to rise moderately, reaching around 41% of GDP in 2027.
Source: European Commission. European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2025.
