17.11.2025
Switzerland’s economic activity is projected to expand moderately over the forecast horizon, with private consumption remaining the main growth driver. Real GDP growth is expected to be around 1.2% in 2025, supported by resilient labour market conditions and rising real disposable income, before strengthening to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 as global demand recovers. Inflation is forecast to rise gradually from very low levels, while public finances are expected to remain close to balance and the debt-to-GDP ratio to keep declining.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment (%) | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| General government balance (% of GDP) | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 25.3 | 25.5 | 25.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
Private consumption to remain the main driver of growth
Private consumption is expected to stay solid, supported by a robust labour market and rising real disposable income. Investment growth is projected to remain subdued amid global uncertainty. Export performance is expected to be affected by tariff increases on exports to the US, although Switzerland’s export structure (with a large share of less price-sensitive sectors) may soften the impact. The recurrence of international sports events is expected to support service exports in 2026, and a recovery in global demand is projected to lift growth further in 2027.
Inflation projected to rise gradually from historic lows
Inflation is expected to remain subdued overall, supported by the strong currency and moderate growth, but to increase gradually from very low levels over the forecast horizon.
Public finances remain sound
General government accounts are expected to remain close to balance in line with balanced budget rules, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue declining.
Risks to the outlook
Among country-specific risks is the possibility of additional US trade restrictions on pharmaceuticals, which represent an important share of Switzerland’s exports.
Source: European Commission. European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2025.
