02.12.2024
Mauritania's economic outlook for 2025 reflects significant growth potential, driven by the initiation of gas production and strategic investments in extractive industries.
GDP: Mauritania’s GDP is projected to grow by 7.6% in 2025, primarily driven by the commencement of gas production in the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim field and sustained demand in the mining sector (Source: World Bank, Mauritania Overview, accessed November 2024).
Inflation: Inflation is expected to stabilize at approximately 2% in 2025, as food and fuel prices ease and global supply chains recover from previous disruptions (Source: African Development Bank, Mauritania Economic Outlook, accessed November 2024).
Fiscal Balance: Mauritania’s fiscal deficit is forecasted to narrow to 1% of GDP in 2025, supported by increased revenue from gas exports, reductions in energy subsidies, and improved public financial management (Source: World Bank, Mauritania Macro Poverty Outlook, accessed November 2024).
Public Debt: The debt-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to decline steadily, supported by higher export revenues and fiscal reforms. The external debt risk remains moderate, with efforts underway to improve debt sustainability (Source: International Monetary Fund, Mauritania Debt Sustainability Analysis, accessed November 2024).
Current Account Balance: The current account deficit is expected to average 8% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased export earnings from gas and mining and reduced reliance on imports in the energy sector (Source: World Bank, Mauritania Overview, accessed November 2024).
Challenges:
Dependence on Extractive Industries: The economy’s reliance on mining and gas exports makes it vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations. Climate Risks: Exposure to droughts and floods poses challenges for agriculture and overall economic stability. Regional Security Concerns: Instability in the Sahel region presents risks to economic growth and investment.
Positive Developments:
Gas Production Launch: The start of gas production in 2025 is expected to generate approximately $500 million annually, significantly boosting fiscal and export revenues (Source: African Development Bank, Mauritania Economic Outlook, accessed November 2024). Investment in Extractive Industries: Ongoing projects, such as the development of the Tiris uranium mine, are expected to enhance the mining sector’s GDP contribution (Source: Coface, Mauritania Country Report, accessed November 2024). Poverty Reduction: The poverty rate is projected to decline to 26.9% in 2025, driven by higher per capita income and easing inflation (Source: World Bank, Mauritania Overview, accessed November 2024).
Overall Outlook: Mauritania is poised for robust economic growth in 2025, supported by the launch of gas production and strategic investments in mining and energy sectors. However, addressing structural vulnerabilities and mitigating external risks will be essential for sustaining this growth.
Sources:
World Bank, Mauritania Overview, accessed November 2024.
African Development Bank, Mauritania Economic Outlook, accessed November 2024.
World Bank, Mauritania Macro Poverty Outlook, accessed November 2024.
International Monetary Fund, Mauritania Debt Sustainability Analysis, accessed November 2024.
Coface, Mauritania Country Report, accessed November 2024.
