05.06.2026
Argentina’s economy continued to stabilise in 2025 after the severe adjustment of 2024, supported by fiscal consolidation, lower inflation, exchange-rate reform and renewed investment in energy, agriculture and mining. Growth is expected to remain positive in 2026–2027, but the recovery is still fragile because reserve buffers remain shallow, inflation is high, and market access depends on continued policy credibility. The fiscal position has improved markedly, with the first primary surpluses in years, while the external position remains vulnerable to exchange-rate pressures, capital-flow volatility and large foreign-currency financing needs.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Inflation (private consumption deflator, %) | 40.7 | 28.0 | 15.0 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 58.4 | 58.8 | 59.0 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 80.3 | 68.6 | 64.7 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -1.3 | -0.3 | -1.0 |
Recovery continues after the 2024 adjustment
Argentina’s real GDP grew by 4.4% in 2025, supported by a favourable base effect, recovering domestic demand and stronger investment in energy, agriculture and mining. Growth was also helped by improved macroeconomic confidence after fiscal consolidation and exchange-rate reforms.
Growth is projected at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. A favourable agricultural season, energy and mining investment, and stronger exports should support activity. However, the recovery remains sensitive to political uncertainty, global financing conditions and the ability to rebuild reserves while keeping inflation on a downward path.
Inflation declines but remains high
Inflation fell sharply from the extreme levels of 2023–2024, but it remained high in 2025. Monthly inflation began rising again during parts of 2025 after exchange-rate adjustments, although pass-through remained more contained than in earlier episodes. Inflation is projected to continue declining in 2026–2027 if fiscal discipline and tight monetary policy are maintained.
The main risks to disinflation come from regulated-price adjustments, exchange-rate flexibility, energy prices and inflation inertia. The IMF expects end-period inflation to fall to around 25% in 2026, while market expectations remain sensitive to reserve accumulation and policy credibility.
Fiscal consolidation remains the main anchor
Fiscal consolidation is the core of Argentina’s stabilisation programme. The central government recorded a small overall surplus in 2025 despite the removal of the PAIS tax and reductions in export duties. A primary surplus of around 1.6% of GDP is expected in 2026, supported by expenditure restraint and stronger revenues.
The fiscal balance is projected to remain slightly positive in 2026–2027, while public debt is expected to fall from 80.3% of GDP in 2025 to 64.7% in 2027. Maintaining this path will require continued spending discipline, better-targeted subsidies, tax reform and stronger provincial fiscal frameworks.
External buffers remain the key vulnerability
The current account deficit narrowed in 2025 and is projected to remain small in 2026–2027. Exports should benefit from agriculture, energy and mining, while investment-related imports and interest payments will keep the external balance under pressure.
The main vulnerability is the low level of net international reserves. Argentina introduced a more flexible exchange-rate band and began a reserve accumulation programme in 2026, but rebuilding buffers will take time. Restoring durable market access, attracting FDI and managing large foreign-currency debt payments remain essential for external sustainability.
Overall outlook
Argentina’s outlook has improved substantially compared with the crisis period, but the recovery remains policy-dependent. Growth is expected to continue in 2026–2027, inflation should decline further, and public debt is projected to fall if fiscal discipline is sustained. The main challenges are rebuilding reserves, maintaining social and political support for reforms, reducing inflation without derailing growth, restoring market access and turning stabilisation into durable private-sector-led investment and job creation.
Sources:
World Bank, Argentina Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Argentina: 2026 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, May 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Central Bank of Argentina, Market Expectations Survey, May 2026.
National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina, National Accounts and Inflation Data, 2025–2026.
