19.05.2026
Aruba’s economy continued to perform well in 2025, but growth is expected to slow after the strong post-pandemic rebound. Tourism remains the main driver of activity, supported by high stopover arrivals and hotel investment, but capacity constraints in infrastructure, labour and housing are increasingly limiting medium-term growth. Inflation has fallen sharply and is expected to return gradually toward a low steady-state rate. Fiscal performance remains strong, with continued surpluses helping reduce public debt, while the current account is projected to remain in surplus thanks to tourism receipts.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Inflation (%, yoy, period average) | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Central government balance (% of GDP) | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Gross central government debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 61.4 | 58.4 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Gross official reserves (months of next year’s imports) | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.5 |
Growth slows after a strong tourism-led recovery
Aruba’s real GDP growth is estimated at 3.9% in 2025, down from 7.6% in 2024 and 8.9% in 2023. The slowdown reflects the normalisation of tourism growth and the easing of large hotel investment after the post-pandemic rebound. Growth is projected to moderate further to 2.0% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, gradually moving toward Aruba’s estimated potential growth rate.
Tourism will remain the key growth engine, but its contribution is expected to become less exceptional. Strong visitor demand supports services, employment and external receipts, but also puts pressure on infrastructure, housing affordability and labour availability. Without further investment and structural reforms, these bottlenecks could constrain medium-term growth.
Inflation remains low
Inflation declined sharply in 2025, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, base effects from administered prices and the strength of the US dollar earlier in the year. Period-average inflation is estimated at only 0.3% in 2025 and is projected to rise gradually to 1.4% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
Price pressures are expected to remain contained, largely reflecting imported US inflation and Aruba’s exchange-rate peg to the US dollar. The main upside risks come from higher global food and energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and tourism-related domestic cost pressures, especially in housing and services.
Fiscal surpluses support debt reduction
Aruba’s fiscal position has improved significantly since the pandemic. The central government balance is projected to remain in surplus, at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Continued adherence to the fiscal framework should help reduce public debt while creating space for priority spending on infrastructure, education, health, social programmes and climate adaptation.
Gross central government debt is projected to fall from 64.4% of GDP in 2025 to 58.4% in 2027. Debt remains elevated, and gross financing needs are expected to peak in 2027 due to large domestic bond maturities. Maintaining fiscal discipline and strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework will therefore remain important.
External position remains strong but tourism-dependent
The current account is projected to remain in a large surplus, at 7.8% of GDP in 2025, 7.4% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027. Tourism receipts continue to offset high imports, dividend payments to foreign hotel chains and remittance outflows. International reserves are also projected to remain comfortable, rising from 9.0 months of next year’s imports in 2025 to 10.5 months in 2027.
However, the external position is highly dependent on tourism, especially from the United States. A downturn in travel demand, geopolitical shocks, trade tensions or disruptions to air connectivity could quickly affect growth, fiscal revenue and the current account surplus.
Overall outlook
Aruba’s outlook remains positive, but growth is set to slow toward a more sustainable pace after the strong tourism-led recovery. Inflation should remain low, fiscal surpluses are expected to continue, and public debt is projected to decline steadily. The main medium-term challenge is to preserve fiscal discipline while addressing infrastructure, labour, housing and climate-resilience bottlenecks. Diversifying the economy and increasing the value added of tourism will be important for sustaining growth.
Sources:
International Monetary Fund, Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2025 Article IV Consultation and Staff Report, December 2025.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Central Bank of Aruba, Economic Outlook, November 2025.
Department of Economic Affairs, Commerce and Industry of Aruba, Economic Outlook, November 2025.
