30.05.2026
Belize’s economy stabilised in 2025, but growth slowed as the post-pandemic recovery matured, tourism softened and services activity moderated. Growth is expected to improve modestly in 2026 before settling close to potential in 2027. Inflation has eased significantly and is expected to remain low, although energy prices and imported food costs remain important risks. Fiscal balances weakened in 2025 but public debt continued to decline, supported by earlier restructuring and prudent fiscal management. The external position remains manageable, but Belize is highly exposed to tourism cycles, energy prices, US demand and climate-related shocks.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 57.7 | 57.7 | 57.7 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.8 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 60.4 | 59.3 | 59.1 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -1.5 | -0.8 | -1.3 |
Growth improves modestly after a soft 2025
Belize’s real GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in 2025, down from 3.5% in 2024. The slowdown reflected weaker services activity and a softer tourism performance, especially in stay-over arrivals, even though cruise tourism remained resilient. Agriculture, livestock, fishing and marine output strengthened, but sugarcane production was affected by Fusarium disease and weather disruptions.
Growth is projected to rise to 2.4% in 2026, supported by a gradual recovery in tourism and steady primary-sector activity, before easing to 2.2% in 2027 as tourism normalises. Medium-term growth is likely to remain constrained by limited infrastructure, skills shortages, access-to-credit constraints, business-environment weaknesses and climate risks.
Inflation remains low
Inflation eased to 1.4% in 2025, helped by lower fuel prices and softer global commodity prices. This supported real incomes, although poverty reduction remained slow and multidimensional poverty remains higher in rural areas and among vulnerable communities.
Inflation is projected to rise temporarily to 2.4% in 2026, mainly because of higher energy prices, before easing to 1.6% in 2027. The Belize dollar’s peg to the US dollar helps anchor price stability, but imported fuel, food and freight costs remain the main sources of inflation risk.
Fiscal balances weaken but debt continues to decline
Belize’s fiscal position deteriorated mildly in 2025 as slower growth and higher spending reduced the primary surplus. The overall deficit is estimated at 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to remain at 1.2% in 2026 before widening to 1.8% in 2027.
Public debt continued to decline, falling to 60.4% of GDP in 2025, and is projected to edge down to 59.3% in 2026 and 59.1% in 2027. Debt reduction has been supported by earlier restructuring, including the blue bond operation, and prudent fiscal management. However, the pace of debt reduction is expected to slow, making continued fiscal discipline important.
External position remains manageable but tourism-dependent
The current account deficit narrowed slightly to 1.5% of GDP in 2025, as lower fuel import costs and remittances offset softer tourism receipts. It is projected to narrow further to 0.8% in 2026 before widening to 1.3% in 2027. Foreign direct investment and official project financing should continue to finance the deficit.
External buffers remain adequate, with reserves expected to stay around four months of imports. However, Belize’s external position remains highly dependent on tourism, remittances, energy prices and the United States, which is the main source of tourists, remittances, exports and investment.
Overall outlook
Belize’s outlook is stable but modest. Growth should improve in 2026 and remain close to potential in 2027, while inflation is expected to stay low and public debt should continue declining gradually. The main risks are higher energy prices, weaker US and global growth, tighter financing conditions, delays in investment projects and natural disasters. Sustained progress will depend on fiscal discipline, climate resilience, stronger infrastructure, better access to credit, skills development and reforms that raise private-sector productivity.
Sources:
World Bank, Belize Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Belize: 2025 Article IV Consultation and Staff Report, September 2025.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Central Bank of Belize, Quarterly Review and Monthly Economic Reports, 2025–2026.
Statistical Institute of Belize, Labour Force and Consumer Price Index releases, 2025–2026.
