20.05.2026
Republic of Congo’s economy continued to recover slowly in 2025, supported by both oil and non-oil activity, but growth remains modest after a long period of oil-related shocks and fiscal stress. The outlook is still dominated by oil prices, public debt distress and persistent liquidity pressures. Growth is expected to improve in 2026 on the back of higher oil-sector activity and elevated oil prices, before moderating slightly in 2027. Inflation should remain contained, while the fiscal and current-account positions are highly volatile because of dependence on oil revenues. Public debt remains very high, despite a projected gradual decline.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 97.4 | 93.8 | 87.2 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -2.5 | 9.1 | -4.8 |
Growth remains oil-dependent
Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.1% in 2025, supported by broad-based gains across both oil and non-oil sectors. Non-oil growth reached 3.8%, supported mainly by services, while the oil sector contributed positively due to investment and new operators. However, the recovery remains weak compared with the scale of the previous oil-related downturn.
Growth is projected to rise to 3.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.4% in 2027. The 2026 improvement is expected to be driven mainly by the oil sector and elevated oil prices. Non-oil growth is expected to slow, reflecting weaker agriculture due to higher fertilizer prices and softer services activity amid uncertainty and tighter financing conditions.
Inflation remains moderate
Inflation eased to 2.9% in 2025, helped by lower price pressures and policy measures aimed at reducing the cost of essential goods. It is projected to rise to 3.5% in 2026, partly due to transport and import-cost pressures, before easing to 3.2% in 2027.
Inflation should remain moderate compared with many regional peers, but risks come from food prices, shipping disruptions, fuel costs and exchange-rate pressures within the CEMAC monetary framework. Food insecurity remains a concern, especially because poverty remains persistently high.
Fiscal position is volatile and debt remains very high
The fiscal surplus narrowed sharply to 0.6% of GDP in 2025 as oil revenues declined, despite continued efforts to improve non-oil revenue mobilisation. The surplus is projected to increase to 3.0% of GDP in 2026, supported by higher oil revenues and expenditure restraint, before shifting back to a deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2027.
Public debt remains extremely high, at 97.4% of GDP in 2025, although it is projected to decline to 93.8% in 2026 and 87.2% in 2027. The country remains in debt distress and faces significant liquidity pressures. Recent external market borrowing helped refinance short-term obligations, but it also increased foreign-currency and rollover risks.
External balance is highly exposed to oil prices
The current account moved into deficit in 2025, at 2.5% of GDP, mainly due to weaker oil export revenues. It is projected to swing to a large surplus of 9.1% of GDP in 2026, supported by elevated oil prices, before returning to a deficit of 4.8% in 2027 as oil-related gains fade.
This volatility reflects the economy’s heavy dependence on oil exports. Lower oil prices, weaker global demand, shipping disruptions or tighter financing conditions could quickly weaken the external position and intensify liquidity pressures. Diversification into non-oil sectors remains essential for reducing vulnerability.
Overall outlook
Republic of Congo’s outlook remains fragile despite the expected recovery in 2026. Growth is positive but modest, public debt remains very high, and fiscal and external balances are highly sensitive to oil prices. The main policy challenge is to maintain fiscal discipline while improving non-oil revenue, managing debt risks and supporting diversification. Stronger governance, better infrastructure, human-capital investment and a more supportive business environment will be needed to make non-oil sectors genuine engines of growth.
Sources:
World Bank, Republic of Congo Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Republic of Congo Post-Financing Assessment and Article IV-related materials, 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
African Development Bank, Republic of Congo Economic Outlook, 2026.
