Economic forecast for DR Congo

20.05.2026

Democratic Republic of the Congo’s economy remained resilient in 2025, despite intensified conflict in the East, weaker cobalt exports and increased fiscal pressures. Growth continues to be driven mainly by the extractive sector, especially copper production, while the non-mining economy remains much weaker. Inflation declined sharply in 2025 due to tighter monetary policy, exchange-rate stabilisation and lower food and fuel prices. Fiscal space remains constrained by security-related spending, while the current account deficit is expected to narrow gradually as copper exports rise and cobalt restrictions ease. Public debt remains moderate, but the economy is highly exposed to commodity-price volatility, conflict risks and weak governance of natural-resource revenues.

Growth remains mining-driven

Real GDP growth is estimated at 5.5% in 2025, down from 6.1% in 2024 but still above the Sub-Saharan African average. Growth remained driven by the extractive sector, especially copper production and exports, including from major projects such as Kamoa-Kakula. However, mining momentum moderated because of security challenges and the temporary cobalt export ban during 2025.

Growth is projected to ease slightly to 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027 as mining output growth slows and major projects mature. The non-mining economy is expected to expand more slowly, supported mainly by services, construction, transport and telecommunications. This leaves the economy vulnerable to copper and cobalt prices, mining-sector policy changes and security disruptions.

Inflation declines sharply

Inflation fell from very high levels in 2024 to an estimated 7.5% in 2025. The decline was supported by tight monetary policy, a more stable exchange rate and lower global food and fuel prices. Stronger foreign-exchange inflows and external financing also helped rebuild reserves and stabilise the Congolese franc.

Inflation is projected to decline further to 6.0% in 2026 before rising slightly to 6.4% in 2027, remaining close to the medium-term target. Risks come from exchange-rate volatility, fuel-supply disruptions, food prices, security-related fiscal pressures and possible commodity-price shocks.

Fiscal space remains constrained by conflict-related spending

The fiscal deficit widened in 2025 as rising security-related spending outweighed revenue gains. The cash-basis fiscal deficit is estimated at 3.2% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to narrow to 2.6% of GDP in 2026 and 2027. External budget support and domestic borrowing helped finance the deficit, but fiscal space remains limited.

Public debt remains moderate, at 21.1% of GDP in 2025, rising only slightly to 21.8% in 2027. Debt sustainability risks are assessed as manageable, but vulnerabilities remain significant. Higher security spending, weak revenue mobilisation, commodity-price volatility and potential reliance on more expensive financing could put pressure on the fiscal outlook.

External position improves with copper exports

The current account deficit narrowed to 3.6% of GDP in 2025, supported by robust copper exports, although lower cobalt exports partly offset the improvement. Foreign direct investment and external financing helped increase reserves to around three months of imports, strengthening external buffers.

The current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually to 3.4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Higher copper export receipts and the easing of cobalt restrictions should support the external balance. However, the outlook remains highly sensitive to copper and cobalt prices, mining output, investor confidence, export controls and global demand for critical minerals.

Overall outlook

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to maintain solid growth in 2026–2027, but the expansion will remain heavily dependent on mining and will not automatically translate into broad poverty reduction. Inflation has improved significantly, and public debt remains moderate, but conflict, weak governance, security spending and commodity dependence remain major risks. Sustained progress will require stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, better management of mining revenues, improved public spending, conflict resolution, infrastructure investment and policies that create jobs outside the extractive sector.

Sources:

World Bank, Democratic Republic of the Congo Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.

World Bank, Democratic Republic of Congo Economic Update, March 2026.

International Monetary Fund, Democratic Republic of the Congo: 2026 Article IV Consultation and Program Review Mission Statement, May 2026.

International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.

African Development Bank, Democratic Republic of Congo Economic Outlook, 2026.