30.05.2026
Ghana’s economy strengthened in 2025, supported by robust services growth, a rebound in agriculture, high gold prices, stronger gold exports and improved confidence under the IMF-supported reform programme. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026–2027 as the one-off stabilisation gains fade, oil and gas output softens, and external headwinds persist. Inflation has declined sharply from the crisis-period highs, helped by tight monetary policy, cedi appreciation and improved food supply. Fiscal performance improved markedly in 2025, but sustaining the recovery will require continued discipline, stronger revenue mobilisation, and reforms in the energy and cocoa sectors.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 14.6 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 60.7 | 60.4 | 60.1 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -1.0 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 56.0 | 54.5 | 52.5 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 7.9 | 6.2 | 5.3 |
Growth moderates after a strong 2025 performance
Ghana’s real GDP growth reached 6.0% in 2025, supported by services, agriculture and strong private demand. Services expanded strongly, particularly information and communications, transport and education, while agriculture benefited from crop gains, cocoa recovery and livestock. Industry grew more slowly because of weaker oil and gas output.
Growth is projected to ease to 4.8% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027. The moderation reflects softer oil and gas production, slower agricultural momentum and external headwinds linked to higher fuel, food and fertilizer prices. Over the medium term, growth should be supported by non-extractive sectors, stronger confidence and new oil production, but the pace will depend on continued reform implementation.
Inflation declines sharply
Inflation fell significantly in 2025, averaging 14.6%, and continued to decline into early 2026. The improvement reflected tight monetary policy, strong cedi appreciation, better food supply and improved confidence. The policy rate was reduced substantially between mid-2025 and early 2026 as inflation expectations became better anchored.
Inflation is projected to fall to 9.0% in 2026 and 8.0% in 2027, moving closer to the target range. However, risks remain from higher fuel prices, food import costs, electricity tariff adjustments and exchange-rate volatility. Maintaining a cautious monetary stance will be important to preserve disinflation gains.
Fiscal discipline improves, but risks remain
Ghana’s fiscal position improved markedly in 2025, with the overall deficit narrowing to 1.0% of GDP and the primary surplus reaching 2.5% of GDP. This reflected expenditure rationalisation, lower energy-sector transfers, reduced capital outlays and lower interest costs helped by cedi appreciation.
The fiscal deficit is projected to widen moderately to 2.0% of GDP in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while the primary surplus is expected to remain positive. Public debt declined sharply to 56.0% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to fall further to 52.5% by 2027. Still, Ghana faces sizable financing needs, remaining debt-restructuring steps and fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises, the energy sector and Cocobod.
External position remains strong but commodity-dependent
The current account surplus increased to 7.9% of GDP in 2025, supported by favourable terms of trade, higher small-scale gold production and strong gold export receipts. International reserves also improved, helped by stronger foreign-exchange inflows and improved reserve liquidity.
The surplus is projected to remain large, at 6.2% of GDP in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027, although it should narrow as imports recover and commodity conditions normalise. Ghana’s external position remains highly exposed to gold prices, oil prices, cocoa-sector performance, debt-service obligations and global financing conditions.
Overall outlook
Ghana’s outlook has improved substantially after the recent macroeconomic crisis. Growth should remain solid in 2026–2027, inflation is expected to continue declining, and public debt is on a downward path. The main challenge is to preserve stabilisation gains while shifting toward more inclusive, private-sector-led growth. Sustained progress will depend on fiscal discipline, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, energy-sector reform, cocoa-sector restructuring, financial-sector stability and policies that support jobs and poverty reduction.
Sources:
World Bank, Ghana Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Ghana: 2026 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, May 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
African Development Bank, Ghana Economic Outlook, 2026.
Bank of Ghana, Monetary Policy Committee Statements and Inflation Developments, 2025–2026.
