22.05.2026
Jordan’s economy remained resilient in 2025 despite the difficult regional environment, supported by macroeconomic stability, low inflation, exports, tourism and continued reforms. Growth is expected to remain moderate in 2026–2027, with downside risks from the conflict in the Middle East, weaker tourism, higher energy costs and regional trade disruptions. Inflation is projected to rise temporarily in 2026 but remain contained, supported by the exchange-rate peg to the US dollar and prudent monetary policy. Fiscal consolidation is continuing, but public debt remains high and limits fiscal space. The external position remains vulnerable to energy prices, remittances, tourism receipts and external financing conditions.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| Primary balance (% of GDP) | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -5.2 | -5.3 | -4.8 |
| Consolidated public debt (% of GDP) | 83.3 | 83.4 | 82.3 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -5.2 | -6.0 | -5.6 |
Growth remains resilient but modest
Jordan’s real GDP growth is estimated at 2.8% in 2025, up from 2.6% in 2024. Growth was supported by agriculture, manufacturing and services, while tourism remained resilient despite regional instability. Macroeconomic stability and continued reforms helped maintain confidence, but growth remains too low to absorb the growing labour force or significantly reduce unemployment.
Growth is projected at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The outlook is supported by reforms under the Economic Modernization Vision, stronger private-sector activity and export-oriented sectors. However, the regional conflict creates downside risks through tourism, trade, remittances, energy prices and investor confidence.
Inflation remains contained
Inflation averaged 1.8% in 2025 and is projected to rise to 2.9% in 2026 before easing to 2.4% in 2027. The Jordanian dinar’s peg to the US dollar continues to anchor price stability, while the Central Bank of Jordan has maintained a cautious monetary stance aligned with global conditions.
The main inflation risks come from higher energy and commodity prices, freight costs and regional supply disruptions. Strategic reserves of fuel, food and essential goods, together with temporary measures to ease import costs, should help limit inflationary pressures. Overall, inflation is expected to remain moderate compared with many regional peers.
Fiscal consolidation continues, but debt remains high
The fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.2% of GDP in 2025, supported by stronger domestic revenue collection. However, expenditure pressures remain significant, including capital spending, social support, refugee-related needs and interest costs. The deficit is projected to remain at 5.3% of GDP in 2026 before narrowing to 4.8% in 2027.
Consolidated public debt remains high, at around 83% of GDP in 2025–2026, before declining slightly in 2027. On an unconsolidated basis, debt is significantly higher. Continued fiscal consolidation, stronger revenue mobilisation and better targeting of public spending will be needed to place debt on a firmer downward path.
External position remains vulnerable
The current account deficit narrowed to 5.2% of GDP in 2025, supported by stronger exports, resilient tourism and external inflows. However, it is projected to widen to 6.0% in 2026 before narrowing to 5.6% in 2027, reflecting higher import costs and continued dependence on external financing.
Jordan’s external position is vulnerable to regional shocks, energy prices, remittance flows and tourism disruptions. Higher commodity prices would raise import costs, although phosphate and fertilizer exports could provide some offset. Maintaining reserve buffers and external financing access will remain important for macroeconomic stability.
Overall outlook
Jordan is expected to maintain moderate growth in 2026–2027, supported by reforms, macroeconomic stability and resilient services. Inflation should remain contained, but fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain important. The main policy challenge is to translate stability into stronger private-sector-led growth and job creation while reducing public debt. Accelerating reforms, improving public-spending efficiency, strengthening utilities, and supporting export-oriented sectors will be essential for raising medium-term growth.
Sources:
World Bank, Jordan Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Jordan: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and First Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement, December 2025.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Central Bank of Jordan, Recent Monetary and Economic Developments, March 2026.
Ministry of Finance of Jordan, Public Debt and Fiscal Data, 2025–2026.
