30.05.2026
Kyrgyzstan’s economy remained exceptionally strong in 2025, supported by robust private consumption, investment, services, construction and industry. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026–2027 as the economy cools from a very high base, re-export activity normalises and gold production declines. Inflation is projected to rise above the central bank’s target range, reflecting strong domestic demand, tariff adjustments and higher imported energy and food prices. The fiscal position is expected to shift from surplus to deficit in 2026, while public debt rises gradually. The external position remains highly distorted by under-reported re-exports and large “errors and omissions”, but the current account deficit is projected to narrow from the extremely high levels seen in 2023–2025.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 11.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 8.2 | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 63.4 | 63.5 | 63.5 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | 2.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 39.5 | 42.5 | 43.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -25.1 | -7.7 | -7.4 |
Growth moderates from an exceptionally high base
Kyrgyzstan’s real GDP growth reached 11.1% in 2025, driven by strong private consumption and investment. Real private consumption rose by more than 17%, while fixed investment also increased sharply. On the production side, growth was supported by services, especially wholesale and retail trade, as well as construction and industry.
Growth is projected to slow to 6.1% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027. This reflects a cooling of private consumption and investment from an unusually high base, the normalisation of re-export trade, and a decline in gold production. Large infrastructure projects, including hydropower and transport links, should support activity over the medium term, but productivity, job creation and private-sector development remain constrained by the business environment and the growing role of state-owned enterprises.
Inflation rises above the target range
Inflation increased to 8.2% in 2025, mainly because of higher food prices and adjustments to electricity and heating tariffs. As inflation moved above the National Bank’s 5%–7% target range, the central bank tightened policy during 2025.
Inflation is projected to rise further to 11.7% in 2026 and remain high at 11.4% in 2027. Strong domestic demand, tariff increases, imported energy and food prices, and exchange-rate pass-through are the main sources of pressure. Monetary policy is therefore likely to remain tight until inflation expectations become better anchored.
Fiscal position shifts into deficit
The fiscal balance remained in surplus in 2025, at 2.6% of GDP, supported by buoyant revenues and a large central bank profit transfer. Revenues rose sharply, while spending also increased due to higher goods and services expenditure, transfers and capital outlays.
The fiscal position is projected to shift to a deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. This reflects slower revenue growth, lower central bank transfers and higher expenditure, including planned wage increases. Public debt is projected to rise from 39.5% of GDP in 2025 to 43.0% in 2027, partly following the 2025 Eurobond issuance. Debt remains manageable, but fiscal risks are increasing.
External position remains distorted by re-exports
The current account deficit remained extremely large in 2025, estimated at 25.1% of GDP. However, the headline figure is distorted by under-reported re-exports, especially goods transiting from China to Russia, which are partly captured under “errors and omissions”. Remittances also remain an important source of foreign exchange and household income.
The current account deficit is projected to narrow sharply to 7.7% of GDP in 2026 and 7.4% in 2027 as re-export trade moderates, gold exports increase and services exports grow. Even so, the external position remains vulnerable to changes in Russian and Chinese demand, sanctions-related risks, remittance flows, gold prices and imported energy costs.
Overall outlook
Kyrgyzstan’s outlook remains positive, but growth is expected to slow from the exceptional rates of 2024–2025. Inflation will be a key challenge in 2026–2027, while the fiscal balance is expected to move into deficit and public debt to rise gradually. The economy remains exposed to remittances, gold exports, re-export trade and geopolitical developments involving Russia and China. Sustained progress will depend on improving the business environment, limiting fiscal risks, strengthening private-sector job creation and ensuring that large infrastructure projects support productivity rather than crowding out private activity.
Sources:
World Bank, Kyrgyz Republic Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
World Bank, Kyrgyz Republic Country Overview, 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, April 2026: Kyrgyz Republic.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Regional Economic Prospects, February 2026.
National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, Monetary Policy and Inflation Developments, 2025–2026.
