19.05.2026
Macao’s economy continued to recover in 2025, supported by tourism, gaming revenue and the gradual return of visitor spending. Growth is expected to remain positive in 2026, but the pace should moderate as the post-pandemic rebound fades and gaming revenue moves closer to a more normal growth path. Inflation is expected to remain low, reflecting subdued imported price pressures and the currency link to the Hong Kong dollar. Public finances remain very strong, with no public debt and large fiscal reserves, but the fiscal structure is highly dependent on gaming taxes. The main risks come from weaker mainland Chinese consumption, slower visitor spending, regional competition and limited economic diversification.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 4.6 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 35.5 | 34.9 | 34.4 |
Growth remains positive, but the recovery is moderating
Macao’s real GDP growth is estimated at around 4.6% in 2025, following a much stronger rebound in 2024. The recovery continued to be driven by tourism, gaming activity and services linked to visitor spending. However, the pace of expansion has slowed as the economy moves beyond the initial reopening rebound.
Growth is projected by the IMF at 3.0% in 2026, while some market forecasts are somewhat more optimistic, expecting growth closer to 4% if tourism flows and gaming revenue continue to improve. The government’s 2026 budget assumes gross gaming revenue of MOP236 billion, slightly above the revised 2025 assumption. This points to continued recovery, but not a return to the rapid pre-pandemic gaming boom.
Tourism and gaming remain the central growth engines
Visitor arrivals continued to recover in 2025 and early 2026, supported by mainland Chinese tourism, favourable travel policies and improved tourism infrastructure. Gaming revenue remains the core driver of fiscal revenue and private-sector activity, although spending per visitor and premium demand are becoming increasingly important.
The recovery is likely to remain uneven. Mass-market gaming and tourism should support activity, but weaker consumer sentiment in mainland China may weigh on visitor spending. The authorities are encouraging non-gaming investment, entertainment, conventions, cultural tourism and urban revitalisation, but diversification remains gradual.
Inflation remains low
Inflation is expected to remain subdued, with the IMF projecting consumer price inflation at 1.8% in 2026. Macao’s currency link to the Hong Kong dollar and low imported inflation help contain price pressures. Domestic demand has recovered, but not strongly enough to create broad inflationary pressure.
The main upside risks come from higher food and energy prices, tourism-related services, rents and transport costs. However, given the still-gradual recovery in domestic demand, inflation is likely to remain manageable over the forecast horizon.
Public finances remain strong but highly concentrated
Macao has one of the strongest fiscal positions globally, with no public debt and very large fiscal reserves. The 2026 budget expects a fiscal surplus, supported by gaming tax revenue, with gaming revenue forecast at MOP236 billion and special gaming tax receipts remaining the dominant source of public income.
However, the fiscal structure is highly concentrated. Gaming taxes account for the bulk of government revenue, making the budget vulnerable to weaker casino revenue. The Chief Executive warned in 2025 that if gaming revenue fell materially below target, the government could face a budget deficit. Maintaining expenditure discipline and broadening the revenue base will therefore remain important.
External position remains strong but narrowly based
Macao’s external position remains strong, supported by tourism and gaming-related service exports. The economy traditionally runs large external surpluses, reflecting high savings, strong services receipts and limited domestic investment absorption.
At the same time, the external position is narrowly based. A slowdown in mainland China, weaker household spending, changes in travel policy or regional competition from other gaming and entertainment destinations could quickly affect receipts. The small domestic market and limited industrial diversification mean that Macao remains highly exposed to tourism and gaming cycles.
Overall outlook
Macao’s outlook remains positive, but the recovery is entering a slower and more mature phase. Growth should remain supported by tourism, gaming revenue and non-gaming investment, while inflation is expected to stay low and public finances remain exceptionally strong. The main medium-term challenge is diversification: Macao needs to reduce its dependence on gaming taxes and visitor spending while developing higher-value tourism, conventions, cultural industries, finance and deeper integration with the Greater Bay Area.
Sources:
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, People’s Republic of China—Macao SAR country data, 2026.
Government of Macao SAR, 2026 Fiscal Budget Plan.
Statistics and Census Service of Macao SAR, Gross Domestic Product and Labour Force Statistics, 2025–2026.
Monetary Authority of Macao, Monetary and Financial Stability Review, January 2026.
Fitch Ratings, Macao rating commentary and economic outlook, December 2025.
