05.06.2026
Peru’s economy remained resilient in 2025, supported by private investment, private consumption, favourable commodity prices and improving business confidence. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026–2027 but remain close to potential, supported by mining, infrastructure projects and stable macroeconomic conditions. Inflation remains low by regional standards, although temporary supply shocks and higher oil prices pushed it above the central bank’s target range in early 2026. Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue gradually, while public debt remains low. The external position is strong, supported by copper, gold and large international reserves.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 66.5 | 66.6 | 66.7 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -2.2 | -1.9 | -1.7 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 30.2 | 30.5 | 30.6 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Growth moderates after a strong 2025
Peru’s real GDP growth reached 3.4% in 2025, slightly above potential. Unlike in 2024, when investment growth was driven mainly by the public sector, private investment expanded strongly in 2025, supported by favourable terms of trade, improving business confidence and stronger corporate income.
Growth is projected to moderate to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Mining exports, high copper and gold prices, and major infrastructure projects should continue to support activity. However, the global oil-price shock, political uncertainty around the 2026 elections and possible climate-related shocks may limit stronger growth.
Inflation remains low but temporarily above target
Inflation averaged 1.5% in 2025, remaining within the Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s 1%–3% target range. However, inflation rose above target in early 2026 after a moderate El Niño Costero event and a temporary disruption to the country’s main natural gas pipeline, which forced greater use of imported fuels.
Inflation is projected to converge toward 3.0% by end-2026 and ease to 2.5% in 2027 as temporary supply shocks fade. Peru’s credible monetary framework, strong reserves and relatively stable exchange rate should help keep inflation expectations anchored. Upside risks come from oil prices, food prices, exchange-rate volatility and stronger-than-expected climate shocks.
Fiscal consolidation continues gradually
Peru met its 2025 fiscal deficit target after two consecutive years of breaching the fiscal rule. The deficit narrowed to 2.2% of GDP in 2025, helped by expenditure restraint, lower support to PetroPerú and stronger corporate income tax collections.
The deficit is projected to narrow further to 1.9% of GDP in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Public debt remains low by regional standards, at about 30% of GDP. However, fiscal risks have increased because of spending pressures, possible costly legislation, state-owned enterprise risks and political uncertainty. Maintaining fiscal discipline will be important for preserving Peru’s strong sovereign profile.
External position remains strong
Peru’s current account surplus increased to 3.1% of GDP in 2025, supported by strong terms of trade, high copper and gold prices, and robust export performance. The sol appreciated during 2025 and early 2026, while the central bank accumulated reserves, which remain very high relative to imports.
The current account surplus is projected to remain close to 3% of GDP in 2026–2027. The external outlook remains favourable, but exposed to lower commodity prices, weaker Chinese demand, global trade uncertainty, oil-price shocks and disruption to mining or transport infrastructure.
Overall outlook
Peru’s outlook remains stable, supported by low public debt, strong reserves, a credible central bank and favourable commodity exports. Growth is expected to moderate but remain near potential in 2026–2027, while inflation should return toward target after temporary supply shocks. The main challenges are political uncertainty, weak productivity growth, high informality, slow poverty reduction and limited public-service quality. Sustained progress will require stronger institutions, better infrastructure execution, more formal job creation and continued fiscal prudence.
Sources:
World Bank, Peru Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Peru: 2026 Article IV Consultation, May 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Monetary Policy and Inflation Developments, 2026.
BBVA Research, Peru Economic Outlook, March 2026.
OECD, Economic Outlook and Peru country materials, 2025–2026.
