30.05.2026
Сделаю Seychelles в том же формате: 2025–2027, без прямых URL в тексте, источники только в конце построчно. По Сейшелам ключевое — tourism, fisheries, high-income small island constraints, fiscal consolidation, debt reduction, external deficit and climate vulnerability.
Thought for 15s
Seychelles’ economy performed strongly in 2025, supported by record tourist arrivals, resilient services activity and continued fiscal discipline. Growth is expected to slow sharply in 2026 as tourism normalises from a very high base and external pressures increase, before recovering gradually in 2027. Inflation was close to zero in 2025 but is expected to rise in 2026 due to higher imported costs and energy prices. Fiscal policy remains anchored by the IMF-supported programme, with continued primary surpluses helping reduce public debt. The external position remains vulnerable to tourism cycles, import dependence, fuel prices and climate-related shocks.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 5.1 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 67.0 | 67.1 | 67.2 |
| Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -1.5 | -2.0 | -1.7 |
| Public and publicly guaranteed debt (% of GDP) | 53.6 | 51.0 | 48.5 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -6.5 | -7.8 | -7.2 |
Growth slows after a strong tourism-led year
Seychelles’ real GDP growth is estimated at 5.1% in 2025, driven mainly by record tourist arrivals and strong performance in tourism-related services. The economy benefited from resilient demand from key European markets, improved air connectivity and continued recovery in hospitality, transport and retail activity.
Growth is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2026 as the tourism rebound fades and external pressures increase. A gradual recovery toward around 3.5% is expected in 2027, supported by tourism, fisheries and services. However, the economy remains close to capacity in several sectors, and long-term growth is constrained by limited labour supply, infrastructure bottlenecks and high dependence on external demand.
Inflation rises from near-zero levels
Inflation was slightly negative in 2025, reflecting subdued imported price pressures, lower transport costs and stable domestic conditions. However, inflation is expected to rise in 2026 as higher global energy and food prices feed into local costs.
Inflation is projected to remain moderate, at around 2%–3% in 2026–2027. The main risks come from fuel prices, freight costs, food imports and exchange-rate pressures. Because Seychelles is highly import-dependent, external price shocks can quickly affect households and businesses.
Fiscal consolidation supports debt reduction
Fiscal performance remained strong in 2025, with a primary surplus of about 2.5% of GDP. This helped reduce public and publicly guaranteed debt to 53.6% of GDP. Continued fiscal discipline under the IMF-supported programme remains central to rebuilding buffers after the pandemic shock.
The overall fiscal balance is expected to remain in deficit in 2026–2027, but primary surpluses should continue. Public debt is projected to fall gradually, reaching below 50% of GDP by 2027. Maintaining this path will require careful control of current spending, stronger revenue administration and prioritisation of climate-resilient public investment.
External position remains tourism-dependent
The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2026, reflecting higher import costs, strong tourism-related imports and external price pressures. Tourism receipts remain the main source of foreign exchange, while fisheries and financial services provide additional support.
The external position remains vulnerable because the economy depends heavily on imported fuel, food and capital goods. A slowdown in European tourism demand, higher airfares, weaker global growth or climate-related shocks could quickly weaken the balance of payments. Maintaining adequate reserves and improving export diversification will remain important.
Overall outlook
Seychelles’ outlook remains stable, but growth is expected to slow in 2026 after a strong 2025 performance. Inflation should remain manageable, and continued fiscal discipline should support further debt reduction. The main medium-term challenges are narrow economic diversification, climate vulnerability, infrastructure constraints, labour shortages and dependence on tourism. Sustained progress will require stronger climate resilience, improved public investment management, higher productivity in tourism and fisheries, and continued fiscal prudence.
Sources:
International Monetary Fund, Seychelles: 2026 Article IV Consultation and Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, May 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
World Bank, Seychelles Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
African Development Bank, Seychelles Economic Outlook, 2026.
Central Bank of Seychelles, Monetary Policy and Economic Developments, 2025–2026.
