05.06.2026
Vietnam’s economy expanded strongly in 2025, supported by export manufacturing, electronics, foreign direct investment and a recovery in domestic demand. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026 as higher energy prices, global trade uncertainty and weaker external demand weigh on exports and activity, before strengthening again in 2027. Inflation is projected to rise in 2026 due to imported fuel costs and domestic demand pressures, but should ease gradually afterward. Fiscal policy remains supportive, with continued public investment in infrastructure, while public debt stays moderate. The current account remains in surplus, although trade volatility has increased because of high import demand and Vietnam’s exposure to global supply-chain shifts.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 8.0 | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 69.5 | 69.6 | 69.7 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 34.3 | 35.2 | 35.6 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | 5.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
Growth moderates after a very strong 2025
Vietnam’s real GDP growth reached around 8.0% in 2025, driven by a strong rebound in manufacturing exports, electronics, services and domestic demand. Export manufacturing benefited from front-loaded orders, resilient global electronics demand and continued foreign direct investment inflows. Domestic consumption also recovered, supported by rising incomes, tourism and credit growth.
Growth is projected to slow to 6.3% in 2026 as global uncertainty, higher energy prices and weaker external demand weigh on exports and domestic activity. A rebound to around 7.1% is expected in 2027 if global demand stabilises and investment remains strong. Vietnam should continue to benefit from supply-chain diversification, but its very high trade openness makes it especially sensitive to external shocks.
Export manufacturing remains the main engine
Vietnam’s growth model remains strongly anchored in export-oriented manufacturing. Electronics, machinery, textiles, footwear and furniture continue to attract foreign investment and support employment. The country’s role in global supply chains has strengthened as firms diversify production across Asia.
However, this openness also creates vulnerabilities. Vietnam’s trade-to-GDP ratio is extremely high, making the economy exposed to global demand, US trade policy, China-linked supply chains, shipping disruptions and electronics cycles. Sustaining growth will require stronger domestic suppliers, higher value added and continued improvements in logistics, skills and energy reliability.
Inflation rises in 2026
Inflation remained moderate in 2025, but price pressures increased in 2026 as imported fuel and transport costs rose. Higher energy prices, stronger domestic demand and exchange-rate pressures are expected to push inflation above the 2025 level.
Inflation is projected to rise to around 4.5% in 2026 before easing to about 3.8% in 2027. The main risks come from fuel prices, food prices, administered price adjustments, exchange-rate depreciation and higher logistics costs. Monetary policy will need to balance inflation control with support for credit and investment.
Fiscal policy remains supportive
Vietnam’s fiscal position remains manageable, with the deficit projected at around 2% of GDP in 2026–2027. Public investment remains an important policy tool, especially for transport infrastructure, energy, digitalisation and climate-resilient projects. Strong growth and moderate debt give the authorities room to support activity if external demand weakens.
Public debt is projected to remain moderate, rising only gradually from about 34% of GDP in 2025 to around 36% in 2027. Fiscal risks remain limited, but faster execution of high-quality public investment, stronger tax administration and careful management of contingent liabilities will be important.
External position remains strong but more volatile
Vietnam’s current account surplus remained sizeable in 2025, supported by goods exports, tourism recovery and remittances. The surplus is expected to narrow in 2026 as import demand rises, energy prices increase and export momentum slows, before improving slightly in 2027.
The external position remains fundamentally strong, supported by foreign direct investment, manufacturing exports and adequate reserves. However, trade volatility has increased, with monthly trade balances affected by front-loaded imports, supply-chain shifts and energy costs. Vietnam remains exposed to US trade policy, global electronics demand, Chinese demand, shipping costs and exchange-rate pressures.
Overall outlook
Vietnam’s outlook remains favourable, with growth expected to stay among the strongest in Asia despite a temporary slowdown in 2026. Inflation should remain manageable, public debt is moderate, and FDI continues to support manufacturing and export capacity. The main medium-term challenges are raising productivity, deepening domestic supply chains, improving energy security, upgrading infrastructure, strengthening financial-sector resilience and reducing vulnerability to external trade shocks.
Sources:
World Bank, Vietnam Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
World Bank, Viet Nam Economic Update, May 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, April 2026: Viet Nam.
State Bank of Vietnam, Monetary Policy and Banking Sector Developments, 2025–2026.
General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Socio-Economic Situation and CPI releases, 2025–2026.
