01.05.2026
Kazakhstan’s economy expanded strongly in 2025, supported by robust domestic demand, rapid credit growth and a one-off increase in oil production following the Tengiz field expansion. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026–2027 as oil output stabilises and domestic demand cools, but it should remain solid by regional standards. Inflation remains the main macroeconomic challenge, staying well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s 5% target despite tight monetary policy. Fiscal and external balances are expected to improve temporarily in 2026, helped by higher oil revenues, but medium-term risks remain linked to commodity dependence, quasi-fiscal activity, inflation persistence and oil export infrastructure.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| Unemployment (%) | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -3.2 | -1.3 | -2.8 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 24.8 | 24.3 | 27.2 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -0.4 | -3.0 |
Growth moderates after a strong oil-led expansion
Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth accelerated to 6.5% in 2025, the strongest rate in more than a decade. The expansion was driven by strong domestic demand, household borrowing and a major increase in oil production after the Tengiz field expansion. Mining was the main growth engine, while manufacturing, services and retail trade also performed strongly.
Growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027 as oil output stabilises and the economy moves closer to its potential growth rate. Household consumption should remain resilient, supported by targeted social transfers and a recovery in real wages, but weaker momentum in consumer lending and softer export growth are expected to limit further acceleration. Public investment and infrastructure projects should continue to support activity.
Inflation remains elevated despite tight monetary policy
Inflation rose sharply in 2025, reaching 12.3% year-on-year in December, driven by import costs, utility tariff increases, strong domestic demand and quasi-fiscal operations. The National Bank of Kazakhstan responded by raising the base rate to 18% and keeping monetary conditions tight. Annual inflation eased to 11.7% in February 2026 and 11.0% in March, but it remains well above the 5% target.
Inflation is projected to decline only gradually, to around 10.0% in 2026 and 8.5% in 2027. The National Bank’s own forecast points to inflation of 9.5–11.5% in 2026 and 5.5–7.5% by the end of 2027. Disinflation should be supported by tight monetary policy and slower demand, but risks remain from food prices, energy prices, utility tariffs, exchange-rate volatility and inflation expectations.
Fiscal position improves in 2026, but risks remain
The fiscal deficit improved slightly to an estimated 3.2% of GDP in 2025, while public debt edged up to 24.8% of GDP. The deficit is expected to narrow to 1.3% of GDP in 2026, supported by higher oil revenues and the government’s 2026–2028 budget plans, before widening again to around 2.8% of GDP in 2027. Public debt remains moderate, but is projected to rise over the medium term.
The fiscal outlook is complicated by quasi-fiscal activities, tax revenue volatility and the state’s large role in the economy. New tax and budget codes should support medium-term consolidation, but maintaining fiscal discipline will be important as spending needs remain high in infrastructure, utilities, social support and economic diversification.
External balance depends heavily on oil and export infrastructure
The current account deficit widened to 3.9% of GDP in 2025, reflecting a weaker trade balance, lower export revenues and profit repatriation linked to foreign direct investment. The deficit is projected to narrow sharply to 0.4% of GDP in 2026, helped by higher oil revenues, before widening again to around 3.0% of GDP in 2027.
Kazakhstan’s external position remains highly exposed to oil prices, production volumes and export routes. The country’s reliance on Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure remains a key downside risk. At the same time, ongoing infrastructure investment, Middle Corridor development and efforts to diversify export routes could reduce vulnerabilities over time.
Overall outlook
Kazakhstan is expected to remain one of Central Asia’s stronger performers in 2026–2027, but growth will moderate after the exceptional oil-supported expansion of 2025. Inflation is likely to remain the central policy challenge, requiring tight monetary conditions for longer. Public debt is low by international standards, but fiscal risks from quasi-fiscal operations and expenditure pressures require careful management. Sustained medium-term progress will depend on reducing commodity dependence, improving productivity, strengthening fiscal transparency and supporting private-sector-led diversification.
Sources:
World Bank, Kazakhstan Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
World Bank, Kazakhstan Country Overview / Kazakhstan Economic Update 2026.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Regional Economic Prospects, February 2026.
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, April 2026: Kazakhstan.
National Bank of Kazakhstan, Monetary Policy Decision / Base Rate Press Release, March 2026.
