01.05.2026
Uzbekistan’s economy remained one of the strongest performers in the region in 2025, supported by robust private consumption, investment, remittances, credit growth and high gold prices. Growth is expected to moderate in 2026, partly because of weaker external demand and the impact of higher global energy prices, before strengthening again in 2027. Inflation is projected to continue declining, helped by tight monetary policy and a relatively stable exchange rate, although it remains above the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s 5% target in 2026. Fiscal policy is expected to stay broadly disciplined, with the deficit around 3% of GDP, while public debt remains moderate.
| Indicators | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%, yoy) | 7.7 | 6.4 | 6.7 |
| Inflation (%, yoy) | 8.8 | 7.8 | 5.8 |
| Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15+) | 69.0 | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Fiscal balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Gross public debt (% of GDP) | 28.6 | 27.8 | 27.4 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.4 | -3.7 |
Growth remains strong, but external headwinds are increasing
Uzbekistan’s real GDP growth reached 7.7% in 2025, driven by strong private consumption, investment, services and construction. Household income growth remained high, supported by wages and remittances, while investment continued to benefit from structural reforms and public infrastructure priorities.
Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4% in 2026 before rising to 6.7% in 2027. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver, especially private consumption and investment. However, weaker growth in Russia and China, a possible correction in gold prices, tighter global financial conditions and higher energy prices could limit momentum.
Inflation continues to decline
Inflation declined from 9.6% in 2024 to an estimated 8.8% in 2025 and is projected to fall further to 7.8% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027. The disinflation trend reflects tight monetary policy, exchange-rate stability and easing core inflation. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept policy relatively tight, with the policy rate at 14% since March 2025.
Inflation is still expected to remain above the 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global energy prices and administered price adjustments. However, the impact should be partly mitigated by slower increases in regulated prices and temporary transport subsidies. Inflation is expected to move closer to the target in 2027.
Fiscal consolidation remains broadly on track
The fiscal deficit narrowed to an estimated 2.1% of GDP in 2025, helped by revenue collection efforts and reduced fiscal support to state-owned enterprises. The deficit is projected to widen to around 3.0% of GDP in 2026 and remain near that level in 2027, reflecting continued public investment and social spending needs.
Public debt remains moderate and is expected to stay below 30% of GDP over the forecast horizon. The government is expected to adhere to its debt limits, with debt projected at around 28% of GDP in 2026–2027. Continued reduction of energy subsidies, lower on-lending to state-owned enterprises and stronger revenue administration should support fiscal discipline.
External balance remains vulnerable to imports and commodity prices
The current account deficit narrowed to 3.3% of GDP in 2025, supported by remittances and high gold prices. It is projected to widen to 4.4% of GDP in 2026, as import demand remains strong and energy-price pressures increase, before narrowing to 3.7% in 2027.
Uzbekistan’s external position is exposed to gold prices, remittance flows, energy prices and economic conditions in key trading partners, especially Russia and China. Strong foreign direct investment and continued reform momentum should help finance external needs, but a sharper decline in remittances or gold prices would weaken the outlook.
Overall outlook
Uzbekistan is expected to remain one of Central Asia’s fastest-growing economies in 2026–2027. Growth will be supported by domestic demand, investment and reforms, while inflation should continue to decline gradually. The main policy challenge is to preserve macroeconomic stability while continuing structural reforms, reducing the role of the state in the economy and improving productivity. Downside risks stem mainly from weaker external demand, lower gold prices, tighter global financial conditions, higher energy prices and slower remittance growth.
Sources:
World Bank, Uzbekistan Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026.
International Monetary Fund, Uzbekistan: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission, April 2026.
Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, April 2026: Uzbekistan.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Regional Economic Prospects, February 2026.
Central Bank of Uzbekistan, Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook materials, 2026.
